Can a Free Republic be a Superpower: Part 2a: Is the US a Superpower?
On the surface, this question seems almost silly. The US has a nuclear arsenal, one of the strongest economies, and outstanding military power. Yet we ran from Afghanistan with our tail between our legs in near total disgrace. We did something like that in Vietnam nearly 50 years before repeating it in Afghanistan. Are these the actions of a superpower?
Think about it for a moment. We could have launched nuclear weapons after the 9/11 attacks and obliterated Afghanistan. But we did not. We acted with restraint and pursued a less final solution. Is restraint part of being an effective superpower?
To answer the question, perhaps we need to first look at national power, as it is what a superpower must focus and effectively employ. There are two common models of national power. MIDLIFE (military, information, diplomatic, law enforcement, intelligence, financial, economic) provides the more comprehensive of the two. However, DIME (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic), PMESII and its variant PMESII-PT (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and Time) are perhaps the most commonly used. For this analysis, I will combine elements of each to build a model.
| Element | Description | Example |
| Political | Political systems govern national power. Political parties govern the political systems. Politicians dominate both, and their goal seems to be to remain in power. Politicians dominate both, and their goal seems to be to remain in power. This may or may not coincide with national interests. Politicians govern national actions. | The current infighting between and with parties over control of the US. Using national assets and agencies to fight political wars. It may also limit US actions in the international arena. |
| Diplomatic | Diplomatic power governs our ability to shape and influence other countries. | Diplomacy is part and parcel in just about every action on the international stage. The US ambassador in each country also leads all US efforts in the country. |
| Military | As the saying goes, the military is about killing people and breaking things. At least on the surface. When we dig a bit deeper, the application of military power is to compel behavior. But it is often more nuanced than the iron fist. | We just finished 20+ years of military conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq. The military aid we supply to Ukraine is a non-kinetic example, as are the Security Force Assistance Brigades that train and assist partner countries. |
| Economic | There is an internal and an external aspect to economic power. Internally, a strong economy funds the development and employment of the other elements of power. Externally, it is the ability to compel behavior through sanctions and boycotts. | The use of economic sanctions was a significant reason the Apartheid regime in South Africa fell. We see its use in penalizing to penalize Russia and Iran today. |
| Social | The social element is multidimensional. One element is the social is the Republic’s electorate. One element is the target element’s society. The third element is the social networking withing both of the other two dimensions. | The Social Justice movement in the west is fundamentally changing many people’s concept of history and justice. This provides opportunities for adversaries to exploit. The Army also employed social constructs in Afghanistan and Iraq with the Human Terrain Teams. |
| Information
Intelligence |
In Intelligence vs. Information: Creating Actionable Knowledge and Making Effective Decisions, I looked at the differences and the relationship between intelligence and information. Intelligence is the process that turns information into actionable knowledge. Information is the fuel and intelligence is the engine. | Open Systems Intelligence (OSINT) is an example of how analysts fuse social information and intelligence to create actionable knowledge. |
| Infrastructure | Infrastructure is the means to manifest economic power and to deploy military power. | An example of power project infrastructure in the re-vitalization of Ft Dix during the Global War on Terror to mobilize and deploy reserve components to Afghanistan and Iraq. Examples of economic infrastructure are power grids and transmission lines, supply chains, and the internet. These are all vulnerable to cyber attacks. |
| Legal | Legal is the rule of law within the US and the power to use external legal systems, such as the World Court. Within the US, politicians use the legal system to compel behavior. Within the international system, the use the legal system to compel the behavior of other states. Economic tools are virtually useless to compel behavior without the legal backing. | Legal means to withhold a country’s cash and other economic assets that are in other countries. The war criminal trials after WWII are also examples. Interestingly, the US avoids some entanglements with the World Court to prevent soldiers from prosecution. |
| Time | Time seems a strange element of power. Perhaps it is only one with Information and Intelligence. If we can make effective decisions faster than adversaries, we have a significant advantage, especially if we can implement in fast. | Artificial Intelligence (AI) is really about time. AI processes data quicker than any human can and can make deep inferences between data elements, which speeds decisions. But AI is a double-edged sword. Cheap AI is on o the rise, and, much like the Filipino hacker that unleashed the I Love You Virus, increasingly available to non-state as well as state actors. |
| Nuclear | Most models include nuclear as part of Military. I have separated it out given its uniqueness and the economic aspects of nuclear power for electric generation. | Iran is using their electric power nuclear reactors to process uranium for nuclear weapons. The US used two nuclear weapons in WWII. |
The opening figure shows the elements of power and their interrelationships. The magnifying glass shows elements that focus power. The lightning bolt shows elements of power. The gas pump is the fuel required to power the model and the brain with sprockets shows turning the fuel into energy. The social element has an upside-down lightning bolt that shows its power to disrupt as well as to support. Politics is the conductor.
The US clearly has all these elements and is the dominant military power and has one of the dominant economies. On the surface, it is a superpower. But can it effectively apply the elements of power? Part 2b will look at how successful the US is in focusing and employing these elements since WWII to see if it meets the definition cited in Part 1.
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