Surveys, Polls, Cognitive Bias and Election Results
(Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html) One common thread in the stories of the 2024 election is that Trump came from behind to win the election. But what if that is not the true story? What if the polling data was flawed? How…
Critical Thinking: Credence and Veracity
Critical Thinking and Policy Development and Analysis introduced the concepts of credence and veracity and said they were two sides of the same coin. The coin’s value depends on its credence and veracity. The figure above aligns credence with…
Critical Thinking: Bounded Rationality and Time
Time is one component of bounded rationality. The Bounded Rationality Model (see the introduction to this series) includes cognitive limitations and information/knowledge quality. Severe time constraints can drive a decision to System 1 approaches, with the decision based on…
