Threat 7: Sociocultural Aspects of the Threat and Strategy
“Culture eats strategy for breakfast,” a quote often attributed to Peter Drucker, highlights an undeniable truth: Even the most brilliant strategy can falter if not supported by a strong, aligned leadership culture. The key sociocultural question framed in Part 1…
Threat Part 6: Intent- Needs, Desires, and Fears
What the threat wants to achieve is a function of desires, needs, and fears: Intent = ƒ(desires, needs, fears) There is a theory that if people and nations just understood each other and could clearly see their motive, needs, and…
Threat Part 5: Capacity
With capacity, the fundamental question is: how long can the threat sustain capabilities? Do they have the capacity for just a single strike or do they have the capacity for multiple strikes and to sustain the capabilities over an extended…
Threat Part 4: Capability
Part 3 of this series provided an overview of a threat development process. It talked about capabilities but did not go into detail. This part will focus on capability identification. It is not as straightforward as one might think. Looking…
Threat Part 3: Iterative Process and Scenarios
Part 2 discussed an iterative approach to threat assessment and scenario development. This part develops an iterative process as shown in the figure below, as well as an introduction to threat scenario development. The threat development process is a continuous…
Threat Part 2: Component Integration
Part 1 of this series developed the core threat components and noted that they pertain to all organizations, whether military, commercial, educational, charitable, non-governmental (NGO), or political. The components in the function statement: Threat = ƒ(Capability, Capacity, Intent, Socio-cultural, Risk)…
Threats Part 1: Component Introduction
This is an introduction to a more detailed discussion and assessment of threats. Most in the military are familiar with threats from Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield and similar concepts. In the commercial space, we often come across it in…
