Thoughts on Ukraine Part 12: Chinese Interests in the Ukraine Crisis
A 24 September 2021 report from the Center for Economic Security states that China was Ukraine’s largest trading partner. A 25 February VOA report states the Russian invasion places billions of China-Ukraine trade at risk. “In the period from…
Thoughts on Ukraine Part 11: New Equilibrium
Figure New Equilibrium Issues The figure above starts as a section of the New Equilibrium portion of the Conceptual Framework developed in Part 1. I have added elements based on developments over the last week. As the central question…
Thoughts on Ukraine Part 10: Why do the People Fight or Not Fight?
Figure 1 Russian Tank Destroyed in Afghanistan (Left) and Ukrainians Fighting Russians (Right) The part started out differently than it turned out. I was going to contrast the Ukrainian fighting to the Afghan disintegration against the Taliban in 2021…
Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 8: Multi-Domain Operations
Figure Multi-Domain War A story in my morning news feeds got me thinking. Yahoo Finance wrote: “This is in effect a financial war now,” warned Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid. Perhaps Yahoo Finance is not the best source, but…
Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 7: The Joint Corporatist Scenario
Figure Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping pose for a photograph before their talks in Beijing, China. Photograph: Ramil Sitdikov/AP Part 6 laid out a most dangerous scenario and a most likely scenario for the events in Ukraine. This scenario centers…
Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 6: Mutual Destruction?
Figure King Cobra and Python fight to both of their deaths. Source: screen shot from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmrQM3wrXpQ War is pretty stupid when you think about it. Adam Smith, in The Wealth of Nations, showed how nations could trade to their…
Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 5: Post-War Rebuild
I am going out on a limb and say the war will end with the Government of Ukraine intact and in control of most of its territory. That is still not a certain outcome, but between the valor of the…
Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 4: Just War Theory
…just war theory offers a series of principles that aim to retain a plausible moral framework for war. From the just war (justum bellum) tradition, theorists distinguish between the rules that govern the justice of war (jus ad bellum) from…
Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 3: Energy, the Critical Asset
When I served in the US European Command twelve plus years ago as the Deputy J5 and the J7, we had many concerns. But a key one, for me at least, was the European dependence on Russia for energy. We…
Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 2: Kleptocracy, Not Patriotism or Shared Nationality
Figure Ukraine Resource Map (pngwing.com) Part 1 discussed some of Putin’s potential objectives in Ukraine but left the question open. Perhaps his reaction on 27 February to the SWIFT action clarified his objectives. He swiftly placed Russia’s nuclear arsenal…
