Threats Part 1: Component Introduction

This is an introduction to a more detailed discussion and assessment of threats. Most in the military are familiar with threats from Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield and similar concepts. In the commercial space, we often come across it in the SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats). But how many of us really think what compromises a threat. The function statement above looks at the components of a threat. This introduction focuses on laying out the threat components. Follow-on parts will expand on each component.

What is a threat? It can be anything from an idea that challenges key organization/societal structures to new technologies to a competitor in a commercial or national security space. For example, Uber was both an idea and a technology that upended the transportation sector. Same with AirBnB. The German Blitzkrieg in WWII was all of the above. Sometimes the same threat can be both organizational in a commercial space and national security. Think of the ramifications of AI.

So, let’s look at the components of the function statement above.

• Capability
• Equipment
• Training
• People
• Systems
• Doctrine and tactics
• Capacity
• Quantity
• Survivability
• Sustainment
• Replacement
• Intent
• How clear is the intent?
• Facts
• Assumptions
• How important is the intent?
• Is this an existential issue?
• Socio-cultural
• What factors drive the intent?
• What factors inhibit the intent?
• Are their internal stressors?
• Do they have partners?
• Are they concerned about world/public opinion?
• Legal and norms
• Risk
• Probability of success?
• Impact of success?
• Impact of partial success or defeat?

All of these components are important. An adversary may have the intent to do something, but not the capability and the capacity. Is the threat a one-shot effort, or can the adversary sustain the capability over time? If so, for how long? Does the adversary have socio-cultural issues that can support or hinder the intent and its execution? Is the adversary willing to assume risk? Why or why not?