Reconstructing History, Part 4: Multiple Punctured Equilibriums

The re-creating history got very complicated, with a series of punctuated equilibriums (see Path Breaking Strategy, Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3) before a new equilibrium could coalesce. The diagram above shows the complex series of events. This part will peel back some layers of complexity to seek some potential outcomes in a new equilibrium.

Before unpeeling layers, let us start with the three primary drivers of historical revisionism: Critical Race Theory (CRT), Black Lives Matter (BLM), and the 1619 Project (1619).

CRT started in the 1970s, with a public coming out at a 1989 conference. While it had an academic life, it really did not make it into the mainstream public awareness until the first punctuated equilibrium in 2020.

The BLM website tells us:

In 2013, three radical Black organizers — Alicia Garza, Patrisse Cullors, and Opal Tometi — created a Black-centered political will and movement building project called #BlackLivesMatter. It was in response to the acquittal of Trayvon Martin’s murderer, George Zimmerman.

BLM made an initial public splash, but then seemed to fade into the background and received little publicity. Even the events in 2014 and 2015 did not breathe much life into BLM. However, the George Floyd incident brought BLM back with gale force.

Part 3 discussed 1619. It made a splash with the pieces in the Times Magazine, but really did not enter the public consciousness very much. Until the following year with a punctuated equilibrium. Prior to the two trigger events in 2020, there was no force great enough to break the path dependency, which prevented CRT, BLM, and 1619 from gaining the power to re-create history.

American history is long and strong. It is a hard path to break. Trayvon Martin in 2012, Michael Brown in 2014, Freddie Gray in 2015, and the Charleston church shooting in 2015 could not break the path dependency. Each of these events rose to public attention and then seemed to fade away. But they wore away at it. In the parlance of physics, each event imparted impulse to the history object. Each collision with an event caused a wobble on the path.

Two key trigger events in 2020, COVID-19 and George Floyd’s death, hit at nearly at the same time and imparted a huge amount of impulse. They created a punctured equilibrium that created the conditions for change. CRT, BLM, and 1619 rapidly gained public awareness and the education institution latched on to them. Schools started teaching CRM and 1619. ANTIFA also joined in, seemingly in an enforcer capacity to help solidify an alternative path.

Then a curious thing happened. While COVID-19 created some conditions for change, through isolating people and shifting the education paradigm, it also got more parents involved in education. As parents saw CRT and 1619 popping up and heard reports on it, they demanded to see the curriculum. Schools and school boards largely refused. Parents disrupted school board meetings. The US Attorney General asked the FBI to treat these parents as terrorists. See Education Reform, Part 3.

The new equilibrium formed by the woke culture, CRT, BLM, and 1619 was jelling. Most companies publicly bought into it and the education institution went all in. But it did not have enough to develop and path dependency and stable new equilibrium. That is why the New Equilibrium is a dotted triangle. It was not firm.

And then the Virginia trigger event it. The democrats thought they had the 2021 gubernatorial election sewn up. The parents’ revolt triggered a comment along the lines that parents have no say in their children’s education from the democratic candidate. And just like that, the republicans won the race and the legislature. That was in the midst of creating a potential new equilibrium. The democratic party seemed to back off some of its leftist ideology and the buzz around CRT, BLM, and 1619 seemed to cool off, at least a little. That is why the ANTIFA, CRT, BLM, and 1619 are a lighter color. They are not gone, but seem to be a bit more in the background.

Then came Ukraine, another trigger event. We have heard even less about CRT, BLM, and 1619. Now, the question is, what does this mean for the future? The crisis is still ongoing, but we can look at a few potential outcomes on the battle for American history.

• Americans rally behind President Biden. Russia is unsuccessful and credit Biden with this success. Biden uses the popularity surge to reinvigorate CRT, BLM, and 1619. Social justice warriors use this to rollback the effects of the Virginia punctuated equilibrium.
• Americans see President Biden is an ineffective president, regardless of the outcome. The crisis clearly exposes his and Vice President Harris’ weaknesses. They blame the democratic party for putting a weak president and the republicans win control of the Senate and House of Representatives.
  • The republican party sputters and cannot enact a meaningful agenda, similar to the situation in the first two years of the Trump administration. Democrats use this to show republicans have no effective policies and gain control again in 2024.
  • The republican party enacts an effective agenda that protects sustainable liberty and prosperity. CRT and 1619 are removed as curriculum items, and replaced with an honest inquiry into American history and civics. To help republicans gain and maintain credibility, I suggest a new contract with America. This blog entry is a starting point for one.
• No consequential changes and America remains mired in social justice and political wars. American society becomes increasingly polarized and unstable.

This last bullet is where we are today. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty, angst, and animosity. Most people on both sides of the political divide want a just and equitable society and prosperity. They just cannot agree on how to get there with the polarized press and social media. In this climate, honest debate is nearly impossible, especially when social justice warriors use their current woke clout to fire people who disagree with them, use the power of government to attack them, and suppress any dissenting opinions.